As of the date of this post, there are several mock drafts on the interwebs. In my opinion, most of the writers doing the drafting have no clue what they are talking about. Especially in regard to the Cleveland Browns. Various mocks have the Browns taking one of the top rated defensive ends, but most have them landing wide receiver A.J. Green from the University of Georgia. Green is a 6'4", 212-pound catching machine who missed part of this past season due to a suspension.
As for the defensive ends - we don't even know if the Browns will be running a new 4-3 defense or sticking with the 3-4. With the Browns coaching staff in flux, it is not clear what direction they will go in the draft. However, I think the most interesting and, as of yet unadressed, aspect of this NFL off season is the effect of the labor dispute. Mock drafters continue to assume teams will be able to retain key free agents or sign veterans to fill holes.
The NFL Draft held at the end of April this year will be the last official event of the NFL as we know it. Normally, free agency starts prior to the draft. Hits or misses in free agency often determine, or at least sharpen, what teams will do come draft day. However, it appears there will be no free agency this year prior to the draft. All the prognosticators agree there is no way the labor situation will budge before April.
That is bad news for a team like the Browns, who have lots of holes to fill, a new offense and presumably a new defensive system to install, and a high number of their own players becoming free agents. What will happen to players whose contracts are up is anybody's guess. There are a few articles out there listing various scenarios, but they are too detailed and complex to rehash here. The point is - the Browns and every other team must approach this year's draft as if it is their only opportunity to add to their rosters before the start of another season. Teams cannot even trade players for draft picks during this year's draft.
Thus, the off season as we know it (which is all we Browns fans ever have to look forward to) will be turned on its head. If free agency happens at all, it may be a very abbreviated version and its timing will likely be much closer to the season - perhaps even during or after the period when training camps are supposed to happen. The only sure thing is the draft.
The smart franchises will recognize this new reality and draft accordingly. The traditionally successful draft strategy of drafting the best available player, rather than drafting for need only, may go out the window with teams realizing they may or may not get to add veteran players. If the difference between the best available player on a team's draft board and the player who would fill a positional need is only 20 to 30 slots, I predict you will see more teams reach for those players on draft day than in the past.
Some teams that are consistently winning, such as the Steelers, Ravens, Patriots, Colts, etc. may choose to draft as they have any other year, knowing that the labor unrest will subside and it will be business as usual for the next three to four years. But teams in transition, like the Browns, and teams that have GM's or head coaches on the hot seat that need to win NOW, will likely fall prey to the temptation to draft for need, regardless of what the draft board says.
So, what do I think the Browns will do? I think they will be somewhat fortunate that their draft position will generally align with team needs, so that they can get players that fill a positional need and have adequate value for where they are selected.
Obvious and immediate team needs include (in no particular order): right tackle, right guard, wide receiver, defensive end, linebacker, kicker. Less pressing, but still in need are depth at running back, cornerback, and safety. The team is one injury away from being bare bones at those positions. Whenever the labor unrest is finally settled, the Browns should be able to pick up a placekicker on the fly without much difficulty. But the other positions will be tougher to fill on a short schedule.
Fortunately, I think the Browns will be in a position to have a successful draft despite all the changes this year. GM Tom Heckert has a good track record (though it is commingled with Any Reid's) and seems to pick talent well. I would hope to see a general draft strategy as follows:
1st round:
Draft picks will be at a premium this year for the reasons listed above, and with multiple holes to fill, the Browns should entertain ANY offers to trade down and collect more picks. I know it isn't sexy, but it is what the Patriots have been doing for years with "great success" (said in best Borat voice). Don't be suprised to read rumors that the Browns (Mike Holmgren) are in love with some college quarterback like Mallett, Gabbert, or Cam Newton, which will be nothing more than attempts to bait some team (a la Butch Davis) into trading up to land a franchise QB.
That being said, if he is there, I think you have to take A.J. Green. If he checks out character-wise and has half a brain cell (the minimum required for an NFL career), he fills a need and is a true top-10 talent. In a west coast system, the QB needs big targets that can catch and run - oh, - and take big hits on a drag route when Ray Lewis or James Harrison tags them, highlight reel style.
Green has the length of a tight end and we all saw how easy a target Ben Watson was for young Colt McCoy this year. Imagine having McCoy, Hillis, Watson, and Green on the same side of the ball. Finally some threats! (look, anything is better than Chancey Stuckey.) Watson, Green, Massoquoi, Cribs, and Robiskie sounds like an upgrade. I think Robiskie and Cribbs are best suited for the slot position. Hopefully Evan Moore can get healthy and continue to contribute as well.
Plus, the potential for Green to improve the offense has to weigh heavily in Mike Holmgren's mind - as that is his specialty and he could not justify going another year without showing some improvement on offense.
If the Browns do make the switch to a 4-3 defensive front (another post for another time), then they might toy with getting a stud defensive end pass rusher at number 6, especially if Green is gone by then. That would be a safe pick and a consolation prize.
The only other option I could see making sense is if either cornerback Patrick Peterson of LSU or Prince Amukamara of Nebraska are there at number 6 (assuming Green is gone). They both are true top 10 talents, have good size and can tackle. I'm already reminiscing about my Corner Brothers poster of Dixon and Minniefield when I imagine Joe Haden and one of these guys together. It would be unorthodox, but two corners that can tackle like Haden did last season would help run support a lot.
Rounds 2 - 3:
Assuming the Browns fill the need at wide receiver with A.J. Green, they will be able to fill some glaring needs with low-risk picks in the middle rounds. Normally, the 2nd round pick should at least contribute, if not start. I would consider a right tackle or right guard with a 2nd or 3rd round grade if available. Right tackles don't go in the first or second round often, and only the highest rated guard goes that high. Right tackles are typically mauling run blockers who are adequate at pass protection, since they don't often face speed rushers like the left tackle. If the Browns had a shot at a right tackle like Gabe Carimi from Wisconsin in the second round, they should gobble him up, and plug him in as the starting right tackle for the next 10 years. Then get used to having a consistent 1,000 yard rusher.
Another option would likely be a quality defensive lineman (for a 4-3) that falls out of the first round. A less explosive receiver could be there as well, though I think we have enough mediocre 2nd round receivers on this roster. The top of the second round is a great spot to pick up a good safety as well. During the end of the first and top of the second rounds, there is typically a run on either wide receivers or defensive backs. I'm sorry, but Abe Elam just doesn't do it for me. Lets pair a great cover safety with hard hitting safety (and 2nd round pick) T.J. Ward. Again, any of those postions (other than WR) would fill a need and be an upgrade over current players on the roster at those positions.
Rounds 3 - 5:
Again, the middle rounds are a great place to find starting caliber players (at least for the Browns) at unheralded positions, such as linebacker, running back, offensive guard and right tackle. At least for this year, the money slotted for first and second round picks is too high to justify taking all but the most exceptional players at these positions in rounds one or two (anyone remember Chaun Thompson?) That may change with the beginning of rookie wage scales - but the scales will likely reflect the premiums already in place for certain positions, just lowering the overall cost to teams.
Finding guys with the right size and strength that may just need some coaching is the goal of the middle rounds. The Browns need youth on the right side of the offensive line and anywhere in the front seven on defense. That can be found in the middle rounds.
Rounds 6-7:
The last two rounds (Tom Brady excepted) are best utilized by finding players, regardless of position, with great size, speed, or strength that are raw and need experience and development. This is where prospects are found and made into reserves and eventually starters. These guys sometimes get the chance to start due to injuries and eventually become quality role players or special teamers - IF you do it right.
So this is where you take that 230 pound safety/linebacker 'tweener guy. This is where you take the undersized receiver with 4.3 speed and no hands and try to develop him into something. This is where you take the 6'8", 330-pound big man and teach him some technique (or how to block field goals). This is where Mike Holmgren finds a diamond QB in the rough. This is where you take a hungry linebacker that got snubbed by other teams and make him a special teams god. Yes, normally these guys can be found among the vast rookie free agent crop after the draft - BUT WAIT - until there is a new collective bargaining agreement, that won't happen this year either.
In Conclusion.....
The draft is always important and can make or break a franchise for years - but this year - with all the uncertainty - it will be more important for teams like the Browns than ever. If they hope to get new coach Pat Schurmer off to a good start, they'll need to hit on 5 out of 7 draft picks and get quality contribution from each. I think you'll see Heckert deal with this weird off season well - if he is allowed to do his thing without interference from Holmgren or Schurmer.
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