What History Tells Us About Drafting Wide Receivers

As mock drafts continue to pour in, there is near consensus among draft gurus and sportswriters that the Browns will draft A.J. Green if he is available with the #6 pick in the 2011 NFL Draft.  With that in mind, let's take a look back at some draft history:



All Wide Receivers Taken in the Top 10 Picks Since 2000:



2010:
No WR's taken in top 10 picks this year

2009:
#7 - Darrius Heyward-Bey
#10 - Michael Crabtree

2008:
No WR's taken in the top 10 picks this year

2007:
#2 - Calvin Johnson
#9 - Ted Ginn, Jr.

2006:
No WR's taken in the top 10 picks this year

2005:
#3 - Braylon Edwards
#7 - Troy Williamson
#9 - Mike Williams

2004:
#3 - Larry Fitzgerald
#7 - Roy Williams
#9 - Reggie Williams

2003:
#2 - Charles Rogers
#3 - Andre Johnson

2002:
No WR's taken in the top 10 this year

2001:
#8 - David Terrell
#9 - Koren Robinson (Holmgren pick!)

2000:
#4 - Peter Warrick (Bungles)
#8 - Plaxico Burress (Steelers)
#10 - Travis Taylor (who?)

ANALYSIS:
That's 17 wide receivers taken in the top 10 picks of the draft in the last 10 years.  Of that 17, I would argue only 3 turned out to be rock solid picks (Calvin Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson).  You could reasonably add Plaxico Burress to that list, but he ended up shooting himself in the leg and going to prison, so...yeah.  It is a little early to judge Heyward-Bey or Crabtree yet, but the remaining 11 picks are either busts or the player turned into a decent WR, but definitely not worthy of a top 10 pick. That's a pretty low percentage, about 17% of wide receivers picked in the top 10 of the last 10 years became legit, pro-bowl caliber players at their position.

Let us look at another historical list:

Impact Wide Receivers Taken Outside The Top 10 Picks In The Last 10 Years:


2010:
#24 - Dez Bryant

2009:
#19 - Jeremy Maclin
#22 - Percy Harvin
#29 - Hakeem Nicks
#30 - Kenny Britt
#84 - Mike Wallace (3rd rounder)

2008:
#36 - Jordy Nelson (Super Bowl starter for Green Bay)
#42 - Eddie Royal
#49 - DeSean Jackson (Heckert pick in Philly!)
#224 - Steve Johnson (just had a breakout year for Buffalo in his 3rd yr., first as a starter)

2007:
#23 - Dwayne Bowe
#44 - Sidney Rice

2006:
#25 - Santonio Holmes
#52 - Greg Jennings
#119 - Brandon Marshall
#252 - Marques Colston

2005:
#22 - Mark Clayton
#27 - Roddy White
#61 - Vincent Jackson

2004:
#13 - Lee Evans
#15 - Michael Clayton

2003:
#54 - Anquan Boldin

2002:
#20 - Javon Walker
#63 - Antonio Bryant
#65 - Deion Branch

2001:
#16 - Santana Moss
#30 - Reggie Wayne
#36 - Chad Johnson (Ocho Cinco)
#52 - Chris Chambers
#74 - Steve Smith
#204 - T.J. Houshmandzadeh

2000:
#47 - Jerry Porter
#78 - Laveranues Coles
#80 - Darrell Jackson

ANALYSIS:
There were too many overall receivers taken to look at percentages, but the risk-reward ratio with taking a wide receiver outside the top 10, or even in rounds 2 - 7 is much better than the top 10 picks.  The point is, although they never come out of college with as much hype, there are future pro-bowl wide receivers to be had in the mid rounds of the draft.  I'm sure the Browns would love to find a Mike Wallace (3rd round), DeSean Jackson (2nd round), or Brandon Marshall (4th round) in the draft this year.  This isn't to say that it is easy to find these players, but it is possible.  And the risk is much lower with later picks.  The Browns cannot afford another top 10 bust.

With that, let's look at one more list:

Wide Receivers Taken By The Browns Since 2000


2010:
#177 - Carlton Mitchell (currently tearing up the practice squad)

2009:
#36 - Brian Robiskie (has already earned the nickname "Slowbiskie")
#50 - Mohamed Massaquoi

2008:
#191 - Paul Hubbard (Who?)

2007:
#234 - Syndric Steptoe (ironically taken one slot ahead of Chauncey Stuckey)

2006:
#78 - Travis Wilson (huge bust for a third rounder, and that's saying something)

2005:
#3 - Braylon Edwards (Punch-Drunk McTrash Talker)

2004:
#6 - Kellen Winslow (I know he's a TE, but he was the only receiver we had most games)

2003:
None

2002:
#47 Andre Davis

2001:
#33 - Quincy Morgan
#245 - Andre King

2000:
#32 - Dennis Northcutt
#79 - JuJuan Dawson

ANALYSIS:
Wow.  That's a bad list.  13 WR's drafted by the Browns in the last 10 years and only the last 3 taken are on the team currently.  Braylon always had the talent to live up to his draft status, but unfortunately, he never had the mental toughness to do so.  After 7 seasons, it doesn't look like he'll ever truly be a true #1 pro bowl caliber wide receiver.  Incredibly though, Braylon is likely the most productive player on the Browns' list.

Conclusion:
The Browns have been worse at drafting wide receivers than quarterbacks - then again - they haven't been very good at drafting any position.  The best pick the team has made in the last 10 years is left tackle Joe Thomas.  He was a good, safe pick.  That's what I hope the team does with #6 this year; take a safe, clean player that will hold down a position for the next 5 to 10 years and land in a few pro bowls.  I'm not sold that a wide receiver who touches the ball 5 to 7 times a game is going to be that player - but a legitimate threat at the WR position can help open up coverages for other players and the running game.  Let's just hope if they do take Green with #6 this year, he ends up in the lucky 17%.