The other scenario is that the Browns lose out on RGIII (sad face) and take WR Justin Blackmon at #4. Then at #22, they take QB Ryan Tannehill - widely regarded as the 3rd best QB in this year's draft. Obviously, the mockers know the Browns need a QB upgrade and a true #1 wide receiver, or at least a WR that can take the top off of a defense (we're assuming in good faith that the Browns will eventually throw something longer than 20 yards someday.) So there are two strategies for filling the needs at QB and WR being played out in mock drafts.
While staying put and taking Blackmon and Tannehill sounds logical and less risky - I did some research on Tannehill and let's just say....meh.
He sounds very intriguing on paper. His first two seasons at Texas A&M, he was a slightly above-average wide receiver. That typically signals athleticism and a more complete understanding of the passing game. He has proto-typical size, 6'4" 222 pounds. He has the strong arm you would expect with that size. He switched to QB his last two seasons and completed over 60% of his passes. That is a big transition and he handled it well. He can move outside the pocket and has some nice running ability as well.
But when you really sit down and watch Tannehill play, you find as many bad plays as good ones in his game.
His positives: His mechanics aren't bad at all. He has a compact release and moves his feet well, stepping into most throws. He is capable of physically making all the throws - those deep outs, fades, and post patterns that require arm strength and accuracy. He does throw with anticipation - something many college QB's lack - the ability to put the ball in the air before your receiver breaks or actually comes open. That is a must at the NFL level, and something Colt McCoy is still working on. You can't wait for the receiver to be open before throwing it. He also appears to check into and out of plays at the line of scrimmage on a regular basis - but with mixed results - however, that experience is a plus. He typically makes quick decisions and gets rid of the ball. He gets a good pass off even with pressure in his face. He can run, albeit not with blazing speed. Despite running a spread offense, he does take some plays from under center and looks comfortable enough doing it.
His negatives: You rarely see him make progression-type reads. He often locks onto his receiver right away - a la Terrelle Pryor early in his college career. His accuracy is inconsistent. His decision-making is quick - but he often makes poor decisions. He and his receivers are not always on the same page. He doesn't recognize the blitz all that well. He sometimes lacks touch on the short throws, instead rifling the ball when he doesn't need to. He doesn't show the ability to place the ball on his receivers that well - such as back shoulder throws and end zone lobs. Though he moves well in the pocket, he sometimes lapses in feeling the pressure.
In all, you will see him make a big time throw - an NFL type throw, followed by a poor throw or a poor decision. Some of the decisions/throws he makes he would absolutely not get away with at the NFL level. The same could be said of most college QB's - that they make the plays they can in the game. However, the Browns' QB has to play three of the toughest defenses in the NFL in Baltimore, Pittsburgh, and even Cincy. The margin of error is even slimmer than for the average NFL QB when playing in the AFC North.
When comparing Tannehill with Luck and RGIII, you can see the drop off in talent. Tannehill has some excellent upside. But he is not NFL ready and most evaluators do not feel he could start as a rookie. He is a project that would require at least 1 season on the bench before being ready to contribute. The need for QB's will push his draft stock up into the first 15 picks. Unfortunately, the Browns really aren't in a position to take a project QB in the 1st round. So while the idea of getting Tannehill without surrendering picks in a trade sounds like a nice consolation prize, it would likely produce more waiting, over-inflated expectations, and more mediocre QB play in Cleveland in the next two or three years while waiting for him to develop.
The best visual evidence of Tannehill's mixed bag of talent is in the video below versus a good LSU defense. This video shows every throw and run during the game.
1 comment:
tannehill would only be a second or third round pick in most drafts. there are more teams needing qbs than good ones available, so he will probably go high. not a good pick at 22.I agree he will be a project.
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