Tuesday, January 1, 2013

A Closer Look at The Browns' Coaching Candidates

Below is the text of an article by Mary Kay Cabot in the Plain Dealer listing the Browns' potential coaching candidates.  After her background, we provide our own take (check out the links for more research on these guys):

From Mary Kay Cabot in the Plain Dealer (full story here):

Oregon coach Chip Kelly: A league source told The Plain Dealer the Browns will most likely pursue Kelly, one of the most sought-after candidates of this off-season. He will also be pursued by the Eagles, according to reports. Has a 45-7 record with his explosive offense at Oregon.

OBD's Take:  The pursuit of coach Kelly represents the Browns' attempt to land at the forefront of modern NFL offense.
 Kelly represents a high risk/reward.  Kelly is the wizard of college offense right now, even being visited by Bill Belichick in the off season who was looking for some innovation.  However, Kelly has no NFL coaching or playing experience.  He has coached both offensive and defensive positions during his college coaching career, a fact that shows his versatility.  Kelly could be the next big thing in the NFL, but some are already speculating that his arrival in Cleveland would require a more mobile QB.  Other college to NFL coaches such as Pete Carroll had prior NFL stints, which were largely unsuccessful.  Kelly could arrive and pluck a gem of a QB in the draft, such as Kansas State's Collin Klein, possibly in the 3rd round and bring the Browns' offense to the top of the league the way RGIII has in Washington D.C.  Or Kelly could fall flat on his face and learn (a la Steve Spurrier) that his systems don't work in the NFL.  If the Browns hired Kelly, they would lean more heavily on Joe Banner and a strong personnel man to help Kelly acquire talent.  Kelly would come with a good knowledge of college talent, but probably a blank slate as to pro talent.  He would also need a strong defensive coordinator to run that side of the ball.  Would Kelly call plays and serve as his own offensive coordinator? (think Pat Shurmer's rookie year).  Lots of questions around Kelly, but he is intriguing.  Could be a boom or bust hire, and in our opinion, the Browns can't afford another bust.

Penn State coach Bill O'Brien: The Browns and Eagles are also expected to pursue O'Brien, according to ESPN's Chris Mortensen. O'Brien spent four seasons as a Patriots assistant and coordinator under Bill Belichick before taking the Nittany Lions job this season. He led Penn State to an 8-4 record in the aftermath of the Jerry Sandusky child sexual abuse scandal and earned Big Ten Coach of the Year honors.

OBD's Take:  O'Brien's name was a surprise to us.  You can only respect what he did at Penn State this past season given the circumstances.  He has a guaranteed long-term contract at PSU and was named coach of the year in the Big 10.  He could decide to hold onto that job security, a rare thing in his profession.  But nobody could blame him if he decided to bolt college football purgatory and capitalize on his momentum.  Unlike Kelly, he's got good NFL experience.  However, he hails from the Belichick coaching tree and who was the last successful coach from that tree that made it as an NFL head coach? (see Mangini, Crennel, McDaniels, etc.)  The Patriot Way cannot be exported without Belichick himself.  Maybe O'Brien is the exception, but the odds are against it.  He probably fits Banner and Haslem's qualities of being a strong leader, tough and aggressive.  He might be a good fit for Brandon Weedon if he brings a down-field passing offense.  O'Brien is probably also a bit of a risk since he is unproven as an NFL head coach and the track record of his fellow Patriots' assistance brethren is not so good.  He'll also cost $9.2 million to buy out his PSU contract.

Falcons offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter: Will interview with the Browns this week, according to Alex Marvez of Fox Sports. He will also interview with Chiefs and Eagles. Came to the Falcons this season after five years as OC and QB coach with the Jaguars. Was a head coach at Boise State (1998-2000) and Arizona State (2001-06).

OBD's Take:  You can't deny the effectiveness of the Falcon's offense in the regular season.  However, their GM's acquisition of talent has a lot to do with that.  The Falcon's Director of Player Personnel, David Caldwell, is also on the short list for the Browns' front office.  Perhaps Koetter and Caldwell could come as a package deal?  Koetter is intriguing and would bring an electric offense to Cleveland and may ignite Weedon's career as he has potential to be a Matt Ryan type. 

Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels: John Carroll and Canton McKinley grad informed teams on Monday that although he would like to be a head coach again someday, he will remain with the Patriots and won't interview for jobs this off-season.

OBD's Take: Since he has ruled himself out, we won't go into much detail here.  McDaniels is intriguing but another cautionary tale about Patriots' assistant coaches.  He decimated Denver in his short stay and Tim Tebow will remain his legacy as a head coach.  He should probably ride out Tom Brady's career for now.

Syracuse coach Doug Marrone: Marrone, 48, has led his Alma Mater to a 25-25 record in four seasons. He was offensive line coach for the New York Jets (2002-05) and offensive coordinator for the Saints (2006-08). Adam Schefter reported that the Browns have an interview scheduled with Marrone.

OBD's Take:  This one is a bit of a head scratcher just because Marrone hasn't attracted much attention in the media.  His college record is nothing too impressive either.  He set to interview with the Bills and Browns so far.  From what we've read, he is a fiery leader with a tough persona.  As a bonus, he does have prior NFL experience with successful organizations and an offensive background.  Not much more to say about Marrone until more news comes in after his interview.

49ers offensive coordinator Greg Roman: Another John Carroll grad, Roman followed Jim Harbaugh from Stanford to the 49ers. He is also expected to interview with the Eagles.

OBD's Take:  We would welcome an offensive system like the 49ers.  We have personnel here similar to the 49ers on offense and it might save Weedon's career.  The Niners run a version of the West Coast Offense and it might be less of a transition for the young players on this roster.  It would be nice to see a guy with no obvious connections to Banner or Haslem be considered, compared to the small circle of possible candidates the previous regime seemed to consider.  We can only judge Roman based on the 49er's offense the last two years and that has been a positive. 

Colts offensive coordinator Bruce Arians: Former Browns OC was fired by Butch Davis after the 2003 season. Later surfaced as OC with Pittsburgh before being fired last off-season. Hooked on as OC with the Colts and then led them to a 9-3 record as interim head coach, filling in for Chuck Pagano, who was diagnosed with leukemia. Candidate for Coach of the Year.

OBD's TakeArians probably represents the safest and best choice on this list.  He has had success as an offensive coordinator and with young quarterbacks.  He has loads of NFL experience.  He's coached in Cleveland and Pittsburgh.  He has accomplished a great deal in Indianapolis this year and is a possible coach of the year candidate.  Weedon would fit what Arians would do on offense. 

Broncos offensive coordinator Mike McCoy: Joined the Broncos in 2009 after several years as an assistant in Carolina. Is being mentioned as a leading candidate for the Bears head coach position.

OBD's TakeMcCoy's been in play for a couple seasons now and is a popular name.  Hard to know whether Denver's success is because of a guy named Manning or McCoy or both.  They did manage to make the playoffs and win in the wild card round with Tebow - but mostly in spite of their offense.  If he has the right personality, he could be a good fit - but he is already scheduling interviews in Chicago and Buffalo and will have his pick of a couple jobs.

Bengals offensive coordinator Jay Gruden: Younger brother of Jon Gruden has had two productive years running Bengals offense after several years coaching in the Arena League. He was mentioned as a candidate for some jobs last season, but opted to stay with Bengals.

OBD's Take:  Jay Gruden has done wonders in Cincy.  With no off season (remember the lockout?), a rookie QB, rookie WR, and installing a new West Coast Offense, they made the playoffs in 2011.  Now compare that very similar situation with the results of Pat Shurmer's 2011.  They beat the Steelers and Ravens a lot more than the Browns and there would be little transition for the young roster in terms of offensive system.  Two playoff seasons in a row would be nice here, huh?  Weedon's got more talent than Dalton, but Gruden has gotten the job done.  Not only would his hire help the Browns, it would hurt the Bengals.  He isn't likely to land in Cleveland, but we could do a lot worse.

Redskins offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan: The son of Redskins coach Mike Shanahan, he has drawn praise for his work this season with Robert Griffin III and is highly thought of, but hasn't yet been linked to any job.

OBD's Take:  We also like Shanahan, but it would likely be the end of Weedon in Cleveland.  Richardson would probably excel in the zone blocking system, though.  His hire might mean more roster turnover as the Shanahan's are known for wanting "their guys."  With what Washington has going on with RGIII, Kyle might be less likely to leave this season. 

Bengals defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer: Took over Cincinnati defense in 2008. Has talked with teams about openings in the past and is expected to get serious consideration this time.

OBD's Take:  You can't argue with Cincy's defense the last few seasons.  Zimmer's done a good job.  Is he head coaching material?  That's always the question with coordinators.  Another inter-division steal would be nice, but he probably isn't high on the Banner-Haslem list.

Jaguars defensive coordinator Mel Tucker: Cleveland native has been with Jaguars since 2009 and had the title assistant head coach added this past season. Previously coached Browns defensive backs from 2005 to '07 and was DC in 2008. He coached at Ohio State from 2001 to '04. Was considered a candidate for the Wisconsin job that was filled last month.

OBD's Take:  Tucker is a great defensive coach and he has had success at most of his career stops.  He's been an interim head coach before and seems to be mentioned for openings every year.  However, he has yet to land a head coaching gig and with the number of interviews he's done, might max out as a defensive coordinator.  Nothing wrong with that - good work if you can get it - but he hasn't wowed anybody yet.

Cardinals defensive coordinator Ray Horton: Several teams have already requested permission to talk to Horton, who might also interview for the Cardinals' opening. He was an assistant in Pittsburgh from 2004 to '10 and owns three Super Bowl rings, two as a coach and one as a defensive back with the Cowboys.

OBD's TakeHorton's the hot name this year, and with AZ's coach out, the assistants are fair game.  He has good experience, Superbowl rings, and knows the division, having coached in Pittsburgh.  While Haslem and Banner claim they have no preference between offensive or defensive guys, most of their reported favorites seem to fit the offensive mold, which puts Horton behind the 8-ball.

Alabama head coach Nick Saban: The Browns would probably love to interview him, but a source recently stated emphatically that Saban is staying put. Question is, would the Browns be able to change his mind? He will coach for his fourth national championship against Notre Dame Monday.

OBD's Take: Saban appears to be out of consideration, but if Haslem really wants him, he'll still make an offer.  Saban may use it as leverage for a bigger or longer contract and just stay put.  Saban is detail oriented, aggressive and tough, but whether he is a good leader is questionable, at least at the NFL level.  Some very unflattering stories about Saban have popped up through the years since his Miami gig.  He's the top coach in college football right now, and word is his wife loves it in Alabama.  She's the boss, apparently. 

Summary:
The Browns cannot afford another miss at head coach.  An average GM or Player Personnel type might not sink the ship, but the guy setting the identity of the team on the field, managing the game, and developing the players cannot be another mistake on the lake.  Bruce Arians has longevity and success in the league as an offensive coordinator and with young QB's, and most recently has done a great job as an interim head coach.  He is safe, experienced, and a good fit.  However, Haslem wants to make a splash and it appears that Chip Kelly is the top target.   Either way, the new coach will likely be an upgrade over Pat Shurmer.  Here's hoping they get it right this time.

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