So most of us witnessed the Packers beat our vaunted rivals, the Steelers, in last night's Superbowl. In many ways, the Packers can serve as a measure of how far off the Browns are from competing at a championship level. There are some similarities between the Packers and Browns in terms of how they remade their coaching staff and offense. The easiest to analyze, and perhaps most important similarity, is the Packers use of the west coast offense and how it fared against the Steelers' defense, one of the best in the NFL.
West Coast Awaits:
In theory, a west coast offense relies on shorter, more horizontal passes than vertical routes. 3 and 5 step drops with multiple reads for the quarterback, take what the defense gives you. It requires a very accurate QB with great skill at making reads and anticipating the open receiver. Receivers must run precise routes and move and catch well in traffic.
Aaron Rodgers runs the Packers' version of the offense beautifully. Though against the Steelers at times he rushed throws and got more frustrated than usual. However, I liked how the offense matched up against the Steelers' blitzing defense. The throws were quick and helped the offensive line and QB get into a rhythm. It seems like the perfect offense, when executed well, to counter-act the Steelers' zone blitz scheme. No QB has success against the Steelers' defense when they have to hold the ball for more than 3 seconds while a WR works a long vertical route.
The question for the Browns then becomes, "Is Colt McCoy the right QB for this offense?" I think the answer is that the west coast offense fits McCoy's skill set best - so if he is going to be successful in the NFL, this offense gives him the best chance. He has good accuracy and poise in the pocket, which is a good start. The unknown is whether he can make all the reads fast enough and deliver the ball on time. From what I've learned about the west coast system, that part takes the most time for a QB to learn. There are usually four or five receiving options released into every play in the west coast system. That's a lot for a QB to read in 3 or 4 seconds. And Colt doesn't have the arm to make up for a slow read.
Steve Young, who ran the west coast offense with great success, despite only being 6'2", talks about how he often just read the defenders and put the ball in a spot, sometimes without even seeing his receiver. He called it "throwing blind." He relied on timing and his WR's running precise routes. It may take Colt and the recievers a few seasons with this system to get it down. Fans will have to be patient. Rodgers had good stats with the Packers in this system from his first season on - but it still took 3 years for him to get to the current level of success.
The other questions revolve around the receivers. Are they disciplined enough in their routes? Can they make catches in traffic? Are they sure-handed enough not to tip balls up in the middle of the field? Many of these questions remain unanswered. According to Terry Pluto, the Mangini-Daboll regime did not have a commitment to throwing to wide receivers. Pluto also reveals that the team is really only looking to add one significant player to the WR corp and is content to see how the current group fare in the new scheme with new coaches.
A Little History:
The Green Bay Packers released head coach Mike Sherman after the 2005 season, following a season record of 4–12. They then hired current head coach Mike McCarthy, who was the former offensive coordinator for the San Francisco 49ers. He was also the former quarterbacks coach for the Packers in 1999. McCarthy and the Packers had a few more seasons with Favre at the helm, but started the 2008 season with Rodgers at QB. The Packers also switched from a 4-3 to a 3-4 defense following the 2008 season. The constant in all the change was that Packers' GM Ted Thompson was stock-piling the roster with talent from the draft. Thompson was also responsible for hiring McCarthy.
Fast forward to February 2011 - Rodgers and the Packers just won the Superbowl with a offensive-minded head coach, an accurate QB and a west coast offense.
The Similarities:
The Browns just hired a new head coach in Pat Shurmer who was a QB coach and offensive coordinator, just like McCarthy. The Browns are undergoing a major defensive scheme transition - just like the Packers were. And the Browns have a young, accurate, poised, and hard-studying QB in Colt McCoy - much like the Packers' QB.
The Packers have had the luxury of a shrewd GM in Ted Thompson. The Browns seem to have a solid GM in Tom Heckert. Both organizations were built from the top down - with all the coaches and executives on the same page (the Browns can only say that as of this year.)
The Timeline:
Can the Browns follow the same track as the Packers? As you can see, there are a lot of similarities between the current Browns and how the Packers built their current team. It took the reconstituted Packers three years to reach the Superbowl after making major changes (starting from 2008 with a new QB and defensive scheme), but five years from the hiring of coach McCarthy (2005). However, the Packers did have several playoff appearances in those five seasons.
So my advice for Browns fans would be to stop expecting a one-year turnaround and settle in for 3 to 5 years. Hopefully the Browns can achieve something similar to the Packers' success. However, the Browns are further behind in talent (due to multiple botched drafts) and are up against two of the best teams in the NFL in their division.
As the Packers demonstrated this season, the roadmap to success requires consistency, stability, time, and successful drafts. But I at least remain optimistic that the west coast offense can improve the Browns' chances of success against Pittsburgh and Baltimore.
No comments:
Post a Comment